This is the highest seed a Cal men’s basketball team has ever received in the NCAA Tournament. Incidentally, this is the best Cal men’s basketball team in a long time.
The senior-laden 2009 team (my first experience with Cal basketball) that featured Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher, Theo Robertson, and Jamal Boykin was great, don’t get me wrong. And they may have been more fun to watch than our current Bears. But this year’s team is more talented by far, and has the potential to reach heights that team could never have dreamt of.
This isn’t to say that it’s been a smooth ride this season. An easy-to-predict “growing pains” period bogged down the team almost from the get-go. Even playing against Division I bottom-feeders, Cal looked unsure and unpolished, which of course they were. They traveled to Las Vegas for a preseason tournament and were completely run off the court in the second half of their game with (NIT participant) San Diego State. They followed that up with a disappointing loss to Richmond (who did not qualify for any postseason play). With all the talent in the world, the team simply didn’t come together in the first month of play.
With conference play looming, the lights started to come on. Cal earned a galvanizing win against a really solid St. Mary’s squad. They played great in a one-point OT loss at (1-seed) Virginia. They absolutely rolled Davidson (who ended up being better than you think). Even without senior leader Tyrone Wallace, who missed several weeks with a hand injury, the team appeared to be turning it on at the right time.
And then it turned off again. Playing in one of the deepest Pac-12 conference ever, Cal struggled through the first half of league play. Despite notching home victories over Arizona and Utah, the Golden Bears failed to play consistent basketball on the road and found themselves staring at a 4-5 conference record. It was then that we reached the darkest part of our story. Questions about the coaching, toughness, and overall ability of the team sprouted up everywhere. “They’re too young”, they said. “They might miss the tournament”, they said. At the time, we were firmly on the bubble.
But as is customary after the darkest hour, dawn broke through. Led by a resurgent Tyrone Wallace (and I mean RESURGENT), Cal ripped off seven straight wins, including a total demolition of (1-seed!) Oregon at home, and their first road victories of the conference slate against the Washington schools. If it weren’t for two last-second losses to Arizona and Utah (due in large part to star freshman Jaylen Brown’s ongoing slump), Cal would have finished on an 11-game winning streak (not including the theoretical Pac-12 championship game they would have played). They would own a season sweep of perennial powerhouse Arizona, and a total of 5 wins against the other top 3 teams in the conference. It’s frustrating to think about where this team could be, had just a couple of bounces gone their way.
As is, though, Cal’s regular season stands as a resounding success. A top 3 finish in the Pac-12, an appearance in the conference semifinals, and the aforementioned 4-seed in the Big Dance. The Bears overcame many things – injuries, inexperience, harsh competition – to become a darn good basketball team. In fact, the selection committee pegged us as one of the best 15 teams in the country. Does it all feel like a little too much #Hype? Honestly, yes. But on our good days, when we play great defense and get contributions from our long list of offensive weapons, you’ll hear no arguments from me.
So what does all of this mean for Cal’s tournament outlook? Well, I have good news and bad news on that subject. The good news is that Cal has been playing tournament-level basketball (against tournament-level competition) since January, and is truly very close to being the consensus hottest team in college basketball (that isn’t from Kansas, of course). As Charles Barkley pointed out, Cal is not lacking in talent. In terms of top-end players, there is little disagreement that the Bears have enough of them to make a deep tournament run.
The bad news, however, is the draw. One would think that being presented with a higher seed than expected would lead to a somewhat easier group of matchups in the bracket. This simply isn’t the case. The South region Cal was dropped in is clearly, to me, the strongest region. The South started with TEN teams within the top 30 of KenPom’s rankings. To be fair, two of them were in the play-in game, and one is no longer with us. But still – 9 of the current 16 teams here land in that top 30. If that seems unbalanced, that’s because it is.
Cal’s first round matchup is against Hawaii on Friday morning. I will admit that Hawaii is probably better than a 13-seed, and they have quickly become one of the more popular upset picks for the opening round. That’s fine. People are entitled to their opinions. I, personally, am not overly concerned with Hawaii. They appear to me to be a very solid team with a very good stretch 4 (think of Dirk Nowitzki type). They love to drive into the lane, draw fouls, and jack up threes (despite the fact that they shoot both free throws and three-pointers poorly). Our defense has been great all year at forcing opponents into bad shots, often outside the paint. Unless they shoot the lights out from deep, or this star of theirs turns out to be Jakob Poeltl, I’m just not buying it.
If we should be so lucky to advance, we’ll likely play a loaded Maryland team that was ranked in the preseason top 5; A young, talented team that only slipped in the rankings due to sloppy and inconsistent play (gee, that sounds familiar). After that looms Kansas, the best team in the nation. They are top-to-bottom the most balanced, dependable team around, and they haven’t lost a game in quite a while. It’s a brutal stretch of matchups that might be near as challenging as the Final Four would be, depending on who emerges from the fray of course.
Our worst case scenario is that the lights get a little too bright for our young core, and Hawaii/Maryland play above their heads, sending us home far too early. It’s certainly possible. This is March after all, anything can happen. But I get the feeling that Coach Martin will have these guys ready and rearing.
My reasonable expectation is our first Sweet 16 appearance since 1997. At this point, we are a better team than Hawaii, Maryland, and South Dakota State (who I hope I don’t regret ignoring until this point…). I would feel confident rolling with us (and will in my bracket) against any of those three. I cannot say that we are a better team than Kansas, and thus a hard-fought loss to the Jayhawks would not be a disappointing result. In another universe, like the one Duke is living in, I would have much higher aspirations for this team than a mere Sweet 16 appearance. But alas, this is the hand we’ve been dealt.
Our best case scenario is that we beat Kansas. It would be glorious, easily the biggest Cal sporting victory of my lifetime. It’s doable, but it would take a tremendous full-roster, 40 minute effort I don’t think we’ve seen yet from this club. The closest we’ve come is the 20-point blowout of Oregon. But beating a really, really good team on your home floor in February is one thing. Beating a great team (with the pedigree of Kansas to boot) on a neutral floor in the NCAA tournament is another thing entirely.
I’ve said this for the last few weeks, and I’ll say it again. If all of our guys decide to play well at the same time, we can run with anyone. If Jaylen Brown decides he’s the best player on the floor (and he might not be wrong), we can beat anyone. That includes Kansas, and anyone else we might meet along the way. Should our best case scenario play out… I won’t even bother putting an end date on it. The sky would be the limit.
So get excited my fellow Golden Bears. It’s March Madness, the most wonderful time of the year. They say it’s the most unpredictable year in history. They say anyone could win.
Why not Cal?
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