Cal Basketball Report: A Series of Unfortunate Events

It’s definitely possible that we’re living in a “Stranger than Fiction” style universe, where Lemony Snicket himself is penning this tragic tale that has unfolded before us. The issues that have befallen the Cal Men’s Basketball program over the last two weeks have ranged from distracting to concerning to downright appalling. Not to mention, it all seemed to happen at the worst possible moment. In between firings, investigations, and de-commitments, the basketball team was asked to play in an actual, meaningful tournament game. Suffice to say, it did not go well.

It’s ironic (in an Alanis Morissette sort of way) just how confident I was heading into the week. Not hopeful, mind you, because that’s totally different. I was hopeful the 2015 Padres might compete for a playoff spot. I was hopeful the Jared Goff-led Golden Bears might be able to beat Stanford. I was not hopeful that this team could reach the Sweet 16… I was confident. It goes against all the core tenants I’ve learned from these teams over the years, but that didn’t seem to matter when we earned the highest seed in school history. When we were 0.1 seconds away from beating Utah and reaching the conference tournament final. When we finally had our team healthy and (getting close to) firing on all cylinders.

But then, of course, the sky started to fall.

First, mere days before the tournament tip off, a report broke that Cal had fired assistant coach Yann Hufnagel over a sexual harassment claim. I promised myself I wouldn’t get into this bit, so I won’t. But whether or not the firing had a measurable on-court impact, I’m gonna guess something like that isn’t ideal for young players trying to prepare for the most pressure-filled game of their lives. In addition, it was rumored (and later confirmed) that Coach Martin would be investigated for his role in the handling and reporting of the claim. Again, probably just a little distracting.

Then, less than 48 hours before the game against Hawaii, Tyrone Wallace broke his hand when it “got caught in another player’s practice jersey” (not joking). A carbon copy of the injury that cost him several weeks of playing time in the middle of the season. Wallace’s absence was not harmful in the way that Buddy Hield’s or Denzel Valentine’s would be to their respective teams. It’s not that Wallace was the best player on the team. It’s not even that he was positionally irreplaceable – Sam Singer ran the point in Cal’s victory over Arizona in January. It’s that Wallace was the only guy on the squad with meaningful experience. He was the only cool-headed senior playing with that little extra something that comes with knowing a loss ends your collegiate career. He was the only one who knew how to take a punch, shake it off, and keep coming; mainly because he was the only one around long enough to have had it happen.

The final nail in the coffin was junior sharp-shooter Jabari Bird missing the game with back spasms. As far as I’ve heard, Jabari has never had a problem with back spasms in his life. And instead of having two days to adapt, Coach Martin had about two minutes. Similarly to Wallace, Bird’s absence was felt more in the little things he did, as opposed to on the marquee. He spread the floor on offense. He played hard-nosed perimeter defense. He was a solid all-around player, with the ability to explode in any given game. We don’t know that Jabari would have made the difference (2 points, 1/4 shooting, 18 minutes in a loss @ Oregon), but we don’t know that he wouldn’t have, either (24 points, 9/14 shooting, 35 minutes in a win vs Oregon).

It was a few minutes into the game, once the announcers had caught on to Jabari’s mysterious absence, that I got that sinking feeling. Wallace is out, Bird is out, the guys look tight out there (how could you expect them not to be?). We fall behind, and I’m starting to get numb. Much more despair than anger at this point. The refs are ruining the game, unnecessary calls on both ends. Jaylen Brown and Sam Singer are in deep foul trouble and it’s not even halftime. It’s a helpless sort of despair. Like watching a kitten being swept up in a raging flood. Brandon Chauca, Stephen Domingo, and Roger Moute a Bidias are playing extended minutes for us… in the NCAA tournament. The refs wave off a basket just before halftime. I still can’t find evidence to overturn the original call. We’re not going to win this game, are we? Goodbye, poor little kitten.

Besides a brief run in the second half when Cal cut Hawaii’s lead to one (which never made me think for a second we would win, by the way), it was more of the same. We missed open shots and turned the ball over. Hawaii banked in contested floaters as the shot clock expired (on their way to 52% shooting for the game), and had a stretch of 12 consecutive made free throws in crunch time (despite being one of the worst free throw shooting teams in Division I this year). The end result was an 11-point win for Hawaii, and honestly, it didn’t really feel all that close.

It took me a while to digest what was an extremely disappointing end to our season. History will show a promising team - with high aspirations and abounding hype – losing somewhat handily to mediocre competition, and going gently into the night. As an admittedly biased observer, I find that to be unfair. My initial response is to refuse that narrative. How could we win without two starters, with a horrible shooting game, with whistle-happy refs?

But that’s not how this works. The sports world isn’t fair. Hell, all aspects of life aren’t fair. Players get hurt, that’s why you have a bench. Referees are going to make bad calls, you have to adapt to the flow of the game. The team that stepped out on the court against Hawaii was not the same team that earned a four seed, that much is undeniable. But it was still a talented team that needed to ignore all the distractions, play hard, and win in the face of adversity. If a couple of guys step up, if we get contributions from an unlikely source, we could have beaten Hawaii. And we could have beaten Maryland, too. Those things simply didn’t happen. The blame is not on an assistant coach’s poor decisions, or on the ill-timed injuries to key players. Those may be some of the reasons that we lost, but they are not excuses. We have no excuses. We failed.

You may have noticed that I have yet to mention the questions swirling about our freshman duo. Some have said that with Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown alone, we should have been able to win our first round game. I don’t completely disagree, but I also find it absurd to pin an entire team’s defeat on one or two players who aren’t even 20 years old.

I have made my feelings about Ivan very clear all season, nothing that happened in this game changed anything. It wasn’t his best performance, it wasn’t his worst. He rebounded well, and was generally effective on defense. He had a tough night on offense, but Hawaii threw the kitchen sink at Ivan and dared anyone else to beat them. No one else could, and so Ivan’s low statistical output looks worse by association. He has some work to do physically, but his game is there. Would he improve by spending another year at Cal? Sure. Would he improve by spending a year on an NBA bench, in an NBA weight room, with an NBA coaching staff? Of course. Ultimately, it comes down to whether or not he WANTS to take another go-around. It’s possible, seeing as he has deep connections to the school. If he comes back, I will be overjoyed as a fan. If he enters the NBA, I will be overjoyed for him and be proud that he was a Golden Bear.

Jaylen has become more of a question mark. There’s no hiding the fact that he was awful in the Hawaii game. 4 points, 1/6 shooting, 0 assists, 7 turnovers, and a foul out in just 17 minutes. He’ll admit it himself, he played poorly at the time his team needed him most. It capped off a miserable 5 game stretch for him, where he shot a combined 10/48 from the field, committed 18 total turnovers and 20 total fouls. That stretch naturally followed my decree that he was coming into his own and taking over leadership of the team. Instead, he completely fell off a cliff, and played a largely negative role in each of our late season losses (Arizona, Utah, Hawaii).

His situation is mostly the reverse of Rabb’s. Jaylen’s physical abilities are evident, and I really can’t imagine him becoming much bigger or more imposing than he already is. But he needs to work on the mental and strategic parts of his game. He gets out of control when he’s handling the ball. He either hesitates a split second too long and loses his advantage, or he barrels headlong into defenders and makes it all too easy for them to draw the charge call. He’s an ultra-athletic bull in a china shop. That approach works much better in high school than it does in college. And it won’t work at all in the pros.

So, in many ways, I think that makes Jaylen’s decision a lot tougher. He’s slipped in the draft projections, some sources have him out of the top 10 now. That’s a far cry (and several million dollars) from the top 3, top 5 hype he was receiving a few months ago. The biggest argument for him to stay in school is to try and prove to NBA scouts next year that he IS worth a top lottery pick, because he’s almost certainly not reaching that ceiling if he declares now. Of course, that also comes with a lot risk. What if his struggles continue? What if he gets injured? In either scenario, he could be leaving a lot of money on the table.

If you’re hoping (like the fan side of my spiritual being) that they come back, I’ll offer these pieces of advice. First, I can’t really envision one choosing to stay if they know the other will leave. Cross your fingers that Brown states his intention to stay at school, and soon. Rabb could certainly still opt to declare, but I find it difficult to imagine Rabb staying if Brown has already left. Second, keep Cuonzo Martin as coach, and keep our recruits from wandering. The uncertainty around the basketball program could be a huge factor in the choices these two make. Why would they choose to stay on the metaphorical sinking ship this program would be if Martin is released? Not only would the coach who tirelessly recruited them be gone, but more players would assuredly follow former Cal recruit Tyson Jolly’s lead and opt for greener pastures. If you want these guys to stay, you want stability.

At this moment though, I fear Cal basketball is more unstable than ever.

Cal Basketball Report: Season Recap and Tourney Outlook

This is the highest seed a Cal men’s basketball team has ever received in the NCAA Tournament. Incidentally, this is the best Cal men’s basketball team in a long time.

The senior-laden 2009 team (my first experience with Cal basketball) that featured Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher, Theo Robertson, and Jamal Boykin was great, don’t get me wrong. And they may have been more fun to watch than our current Bears. But this year’s team is more talented by far, and has the potential to reach heights that team could never have dreamt of.

This isn’t to say that it’s been a smooth ride this season. An easy-to-predict “growing pains” period bogged down the team almost from the get-go. Even playing against Division I bottom-feeders, Cal looked unsure and unpolished, which of course they were. They traveled to Las Vegas for a preseason tournament and were completely run off the court in the second half of their game with (NIT participant) San Diego State. They followed that up with a disappointing loss to Richmond (who did not qualify for any postseason play). With all the talent in the world, the team simply didn’t come together in the first month of play.

With conference play looming, the lights started to come on. Cal earned a galvanizing win against a really solid St. Mary’s squad. They played great in a one-point OT loss at (1-seed) Virginia. They absolutely rolled Davidson (who ended up being better than you think). Even without senior leader Tyrone Wallace, who missed several weeks with a hand injury, the team appeared to be turning it on at the right time.

And then it turned off again. Playing in one of the deepest Pac-12 conference ever, Cal struggled through the first half of league play. Despite notching home victories over Arizona and Utah, the Golden Bears failed to play consistent basketball on the road and found themselves staring at a 4-5 conference record. It was then that we reached the darkest part of our story. Questions about the coaching, toughness, and overall ability of the team sprouted up everywhere. “They’re too young”, they said. “They might miss the tournament”, they said. At the time, we were firmly on the bubble.

But as is customary after the darkest hour, dawn broke through. Led by a resurgent Tyrone Wallace (and I mean RESURGENT), Cal ripped off seven straight wins, including a total demolition of (1-seed!) Oregon at home, and their first road victories of the conference slate against the Washington schools. If it weren’t for two last-second losses to Arizona and Utah (due in large part to star freshman Jaylen Brown’s ongoing slump), Cal would have finished on an 11-game winning streak (not including the theoretical Pac-12 championship game they would have played). They would own a season sweep of perennial powerhouse Arizona, and a total of 5 wins against the other top 3 teams in the conference. It’s frustrating to think about where this team could be, had just a couple of bounces gone their way.

As is, though, Cal’s regular season stands as a resounding success. A top 3 finish in the Pac-12, an appearance in the conference semifinals, and the aforementioned 4-seed in the Big Dance. The Bears overcame many things – injuries, inexperience, harsh competition – to become a darn good basketball team. In fact, the selection committee pegged us as one of the best 15 teams in the country. Does it all feel like a little too much #Hype? Honestly, yes. But on our good days, when we play great defense and get contributions from our long list of offensive weapons, you’ll hear no arguments from me.

So what does all of this mean for Cal’s tournament outlook? Well, I have good news and bad news on that subject. The good news is that Cal has been playing tournament-level basketball (against tournament-level competition) since January, and is truly very close to being the consensus hottest team in college basketball (that isn’t from Kansas, of course). As Charles Barkley pointed out, Cal is not lacking in talent. In terms of top-end players, there is little disagreement that the Bears have enough of them to make a deep tournament run.

The bad news, however, is the draw. One would think that being presented with a higher seed than expected would lead to a somewhat easier group of matchups in the bracket. This simply isn’t the case. The South region Cal was dropped in is clearly, to me, the strongest region. The South started with TEN teams within the top 30 of KenPom’s rankings. To be fair, two of them were in the play-in game, and one is no longer with us. But still – 9 of the current 16 teams here land in that top 30.  If that seems unbalanced, that’s because it is.

Cal’s first round matchup is against Hawaii on Friday morning. I will admit that Hawaii is probably better than a 13-seed, and they have quickly become one of the more popular upset picks for the opening round. That’s fine. People are entitled to their opinions. I, personally, am not overly concerned with Hawaii. They appear to me to be a very solid team with a very good stretch 4 (think of Dirk Nowitzki type). They love to drive into the lane, draw fouls, and jack up threes (despite the fact that they shoot both free throws and three-pointers poorly). Our defense has been great all year at forcing opponents into bad shots, often outside the paint. Unless they shoot the lights out from deep, or this star of theirs turns out to be Jakob Poeltl, I’m just not buying it.

If we should be so lucky to advance, we’ll likely play a loaded Maryland team that was ranked in the preseason top 5; A young, talented team that only slipped in the rankings due to sloppy and inconsistent play (gee, that sounds familiar). After that looms Kansas, the best team in the nation. They are top-to-bottom the most balanced, dependable team around, and they haven’t lost a game in quite a while. It’s a brutal stretch of matchups that might be near as challenging as the Final Four would be, depending on who emerges from the fray of course.

Our worst case scenario is that the lights get a little too bright for our young core, and Hawaii/Maryland play above their heads, sending us home far too early. It’s certainly possible. This is March after all, anything can happen. But I get the feeling that Coach Martin will have these guys ready and rearing.

My reasonable expectation is our first Sweet 16 appearance since 1997. At this point, we are a better team than Hawaii, Maryland, and South Dakota State (who I hope I don’t regret ignoring until this point…). I would feel confident rolling with us (and will in my bracket) against any of those three. I cannot say that we are a better team than Kansas, and thus a hard-fought loss to the Jayhawks would not be a disappointing result. In another universe, like the one Duke is living in, I would have much higher aspirations for this team than a mere Sweet 16 appearance. But alas, this is the hand we’ve been dealt.

Our best case scenario is that we beat Kansas. It would be glorious, easily the biggest Cal sporting victory of my lifetime. It’s doable, but it would take a tremendous full-roster, 40 minute effort I don’t think we’ve seen yet from this club. The closest we’ve come is the 20-point blowout of Oregon. But beating a really, really good team on your home floor in February is one thing. Beating a great team (with the pedigree of Kansas to boot) on a neutral floor in the NCAA tournament is another thing entirely.

I’ve said this for the last few weeks, and I’ll say it again. If all of our guys decide to play well at the same time, we can run with anyone. If Jaylen Brown decides he’s the best player on the floor (and he might not be wrong), we can beat anyone. That includes Kansas, and anyone else we might meet along the way. Should our best case scenario play out… I won’t even bother putting an end date on it. The sky would be the limit.

So get excited my fellow Golden Bears. It’s March Madness, the most wonderful time of the year. They say it’s the most unpredictable year in history. They say anyone could win.

Why not Cal?