Cal Basketball Report: A Series of Unfortunate Events

It’s definitely possible that we’re living in a “Stranger than Fiction” style universe, where Lemony Snicket himself is penning this tragic tale that has unfolded before us. The issues that have befallen the Cal Men’s Basketball program over the last two weeks have ranged from distracting to concerning to downright appalling. Not to mention, it all seemed to happen at the worst possible moment. In between firings, investigations, and de-commitments, the basketball team was asked to play in an actual, meaningful tournament game. Suffice to say, it did not go well.

It’s ironic (in an Alanis Morissette sort of way) just how confident I was heading into the week. Not hopeful, mind you, because that’s totally different. I was hopeful the 2015 Padres might compete for a playoff spot. I was hopeful the Jared Goff-led Golden Bears might be able to beat Stanford. I was not hopeful that this team could reach the Sweet 16… I was confident. It goes against all the core tenants I’ve learned from these teams over the years, but that didn’t seem to matter when we earned the highest seed in school history. When we were 0.1 seconds away from beating Utah and reaching the conference tournament final. When we finally had our team healthy and (getting close to) firing on all cylinders.

But then, of course, the sky started to fall.

First, mere days before the tournament tip off, a report broke that Cal had fired assistant coach Yann Hufnagel over a sexual harassment claim. I promised myself I wouldn’t get into this bit, so I won’t. But whether or not the firing had a measurable on-court impact, I’m gonna guess something like that isn’t ideal for young players trying to prepare for the most pressure-filled game of their lives. In addition, it was rumored (and later confirmed) that Coach Martin would be investigated for his role in the handling and reporting of the claim. Again, probably just a little distracting.

Then, less than 48 hours before the game against Hawaii, Tyrone Wallace broke his hand when it “got caught in another player’s practice jersey” (not joking). A carbon copy of the injury that cost him several weeks of playing time in the middle of the season. Wallace’s absence was not harmful in the way that Buddy Hield’s or Denzel Valentine’s would be to their respective teams. It’s not that Wallace was the best player on the team. It’s not even that he was positionally irreplaceable – Sam Singer ran the point in Cal’s victory over Arizona in January. It’s that Wallace was the only guy on the squad with meaningful experience. He was the only cool-headed senior playing with that little extra something that comes with knowing a loss ends your collegiate career. He was the only one who knew how to take a punch, shake it off, and keep coming; mainly because he was the only one around long enough to have had it happen.

The final nail in the coffin was junior sharp-shooter Jabari Bird missing the game with back spasms. As far as I’ve heard, Jabari has never had a problem with back spasms in his life. And instead of having two days to adapt, Coach Martin had about two minutes. Similarly to Wallace, Bird’s absence was felt more in the little things he did, as opposed to on the marquee. He spread the floor on offense. He played hard-nosed perimeter defense. He was a solid all-around player, with the ability to explode in any given game. We don’t know that Jabari would have made the difference (2 points, 1/4 shooting, 18 minutes in a loss @ Oregon), but we don’t know that he wouldn’t have, either (24 points, 9/14 shooting, 35 minutes in a win vs Oregon).

It was a few minutes into the game, once the announcers had caught on to Jabari’s mysterious absence, that I got that sinking feeling. Wallace is out, Bird is out, the guys look tight out there (how could you expect them not to be?). We fall behind, and I’m starting to get numb. Much more despair than anger at this point. The refs are ruining the game, unnecessary calls on both ends. Jaylen Brown and Sam Singer are in deep foul trouble and it’s not even halftime. It’s a helpless sort of despair. Like watching a kitten being swept up in a raging flood. Brandon Chauca, Stephen Domingo, and Roger Moute a Bidias are playing extended minutes for us… in the NCAA tournament. The refs wave off a basket just before halftime. I still can’t find evidence to overturn the original call. We’re not going to win this game, are we? Goodbye, poor little kitten.

Besides a brief run in the second half when Cal cut Hawaii’s lead to one (which never made me think for a second we would win, by the way), it was more of the same. We missed open shots and turned the ball over. Hawaii banked in contested floaters as the shot clock expired (on their way to 52% shooting for the game), and had a stretch of 12 consecutive made free throws in crunch time (despite being one of the worst free throw shooting teams in Division I this year). The end result was an 11-point win for Hawaii, and honestly, it didn’t really feel all that close.

It took me a while to digest what was an extremely disappointing end to our season. History will show a promising team - with high aspirations and abounding hype – losing somewhat handily to mediocre competition, and going gently into the night. As an admittedly biased observer, I find that to be unfair. My initial response is to refuse that narrative. How could we win without two starters, with a horrible shooting game, with whistle-happy refs?

But that’s not how this works. The sports world isn’t fair. Hell, all aspects of life aren’t fair. Players get hurt, that’s why you have a bench. Referees are going to make bad calls, you have to adapt to the flow of the game. The team that stepped out on the court against Hawaii was not the same team that earned a four seed, that much is undeniable. But it was still a talented team that needed to ignore all the distractions, play hard, and win in the face of adversity. If a couple of guys step up, if we get contributions from an unlikely source, we could have beaten Hawaii. And we could have beaten Maryland, too. Those things simply didn’t happen. The blame is not on an assistant coach’s poor decisions, or on the ill-timed injuries to key players. Those may be some of the reasons that we lost, but they are not excuses. We have no excuses. We failed.

You may have noticed that I have yet to mention the questions swirling about our freshman duo. Some have said that with Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown alone, we should have been able to win our first round game. I don’t completely disagree, but I also find it absurd to pin an entire team’s defeat on one or two players who aren’t even 20 years old.

I have made my feelings about Ivan very clear all season, nothing that happened in this game changed anything. It wasn’t his best performance, it wasn’t his worst. He rebounded well, and was generally effective on defense. He had a tough night on offense, but Hawaii threw the kitchen sink at Ivan and dared anyone else to beat them. No one else could, and so Ivan’s low statistical output looks worse by association. He has some work to do physically, but his game is there. Would he improve by spending another year at Cal? Sure. Would he improve by spending a year on an NBA bench, in an NBA weight room, with an NBA coaching staff? Of course. Ultimately, it comes down to whether or not he WANTS to take another go-around. It’s possible, seeing as he has deep connections to the school. If he comes back, I will be overjoyed as a fan. If he enters the NBA, I will be overjoyed for him and be proud that he was a Golden Bear.

Jaylen has become more of a question mark. There’s no hiding the fact that he was awful in the Hawaii game. 4 points, 1/6 shooting, 0 assists, 7 turnovers, and a foul out in just 17 minutes. He’ll admit it himself, he played poorly at the time his team needed him most. It capped off a miserable 5 game stretch for him, where he shot a combined 10/48 from the field, committed 18 total turnovers and 20 total fouls. That stretch naturally followed my decree that he was coming into his own and taking over leadership of the team. Instead, he completely fell off a cliff, and played a largely negative role in each of our late season losses (Arizona, Utah, Hawaii).

His situation is mostly the reverse of Rabb’s. Jaylen’s physical abilities are evident, and I really can’t imagine him becoming much bigger or more imposing than he already is. But he needs to work on the mental and strategic parts of his game. He gets out of control when he’s handling the ball. He either hesitates a split second too long and loses his advantage, or he barrels headlong into defenders and makes it all too easy for them to draw the charge call. He’s an ultra-athletic bull in a china shop. That approach works much better in high school than it does in college. And it won’t work at all in the pros.

So, in many ways, I think that makes Jaylen’s decision a lot tougher. He’s slipped in the draft projections, some sources have him out of the top 10 now. That’s a far cry (and several million dollars) from the top 3, top 5 hype he was receiving a few months ago. The biggest argument for him to stay in school is to try and prove to NBA scouts next year that he IS worth a top lottery pick, because he’s almost certainly not reaching that ceiling if he declares now. Of course, that also comes with a lot risk. What if his struggles continue? What if he gets injured? In either scenario, he could be leaving a lot of money on the table.

If you’re hoping (like the fan side of my spiritual being) that they come back, I’ll offer these pieces of advice. First, I can’t really envision one choosing to stay if they know the other will leave. Cross your fingers that Brown states his intention to stay at school, and soon. Rabb could certainly still opt to declare, but I find it difficult to imagine Rabb staying if Brown has already left. Second, keep Cuonzo Martin as coach, and keep our recruits from wandering. The uncertainty around the basketball program could be a huge factor in the choices these two make. Why would they choose to stay on the metaphorical sinking ship this program would be if Martin is released? Not only would the coach who tirelessly recruited them be gone, but more players would assuredly follow former Cal recruit Tyson Jolly’s lead and opt for greener pastures. If you want these guys to stay, you want stability.

At this moment though, I fear Cal basketball is more unstable than ever.

Cal Basketball Report: Season Recap and Tourney Outlook

This is the highest seed a Cal men’s basketball team has ever received in the NCAA Tournament. Incidentally, this is the best Cal men’s basketball team in a long time.

The senior-laden 2009 team (my first experience with Cal basketball) that featured Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher, Theo Robertson, and Jamal Boykin was great, don’t get me wrong. And they may have been more fun to watch than our current Bears. But this year’s team is more talented by far, and has the potential to reach heights that team could never have dreamt of.

This isn’t to say that it’s been a smooth ride this season. An easy-to-predict “growing pains” period bogged down the team almost from the get-go. Even playing against Division I bottom-feeders, Cal looked unsure and unpolished, which of course they were. They traveled to Las Vegas for a preseason tournament and were completely run off the court in the second half of their game with (NIT participant) San Diego State. They followed that up with a disappointing loss to Richmond (who did not qualify for any postseason play). With all the talent in the world, the team simply didn’t come together in the first month of play.

With conference play looming, the lights started to come on. Cal earned a galvanizing win against a really solid St. Mary’s squad. They played great in a one-point OT loss at (1-seed) Virginia. They absolutely rolled Davidson (who ended up being better than you think). Even without senior leader Tyrone Wallace, who missed several weeks with a hand injury, the team appeared to be turning it on at the right time.

And then it turned off again. Playing in one of the deepest Pac-12 conference ever, Cal struggled through the first half of league play. Despite notching home victories over Arizona and Utah, the Golden Bears failed to play consistent basketball on the road and found themselves staring at a 4-5 conference record. It was then that we reached the darkest part of our story. Questions about the coaching, toughness, and overall ability of the team sprouted up everywhere. “They’re too young”, they said. “They might miss the tournament”, they said. At the time, we were firmly on the bubble.

But as is customary after the darkest hour, dawn broke through. Led by a resurgent Tyrone Wallace (and I mean RESURGENT), Cal ripped off seven straight wins, including a total demolition of (1-seed!) Oregon at home, and their first road victories of the conference slate against the Washington schools. If it weren’t for two last-second losses to Arizona and Utah (due in large part to star freshman Jaylen Brown’s ongoing slump), Cal would have finished on an 11-game winning streak (not including the theoretical Pac-12 championship game they would have played). They would own a season sweep of perennial powerhouse Arizona, and a total of 5 wins against the other top 3 teams in the conference. It’s frustrating to think about where this team could be, had just a couple of bounces gone their way.

As is, though, Cal’s regular season stands as a resounding success. A top 3 finish in the Pac-12, an appearance in the conference semifinals, and the aforementioned 4-seed in the Big Dance. The Bears overcame many things – injuries, inexperience, harsh competition – to become a darn good basketball team. In fact, the selection committee pegged us as one of the best 15 teams in the country. Does it all feel like a little too much #Hype? Honestly, yes. But on our good days, when we play great defense and get contributions from our long list of offensive weapons, you’ll hear no arguments from me.

So what does all of this mean for Cal’s tournament outlook? Well, I have good news and bad news on that subject. The good news is that Cal has been playing tournament-level basketball (against tournament-level competition) since January, and is truly very close to being the consensus hottest team in college basketball (that isn’t from Kansas, of course). As Charles Barkley pointed out, Cal is not lacking in talent. In terms of top-end players, there is little disagreement that the Bears have enough of them to make a deep tournament run.

The bad news, however, is the draw. One would think that being presented with a higher seed than expected would lead to a somewhat easier group of matchups in the bracket. This simply isn’t the case. The South region Cal was dropped in is clearly, to me, the strongest region. The South started with TEN teams within the top 30 of KenPom’s rankings. To be fair, two of them were in the play-in game, and one is no longer with us. But still – 9 of the current 16 teams here land in that top 30.  If that seems unbalanced, that’s because it is.

Cal’s first round matchup is against Hawaii on Friday morning. I will admit that Hawaii is probably better than a 13-seed, and they have quickly become one of the more popular upset picks for the opening round. That’s fine. People are entitled to their opinions. I, personally, am not overly concerned with Hawaii. They appear to me to be a very solid team with a very good stretch 4 (think of Dirk Nowitzki type). They love to drive into the lane, draw fouls, and jack up threes (despite the fact that they shoot both free throws and three-pointers poorly). Our defense has been great all year at forcing opponents into bad shots, often outside the paint. Unless they shoot the lights out from deep, or this star of theirs turns out to be Jakob Poeltl, I’m just not buying it.

If we should be so lucky to advance, we’ll likely play a loaded Maryland team that was ranked in the preseason top 5; A young, talented team that only slipped in the rankings due to sloppy and inconsistent play (gee, that sounds familiar). After that looms Kansas, the best team in the nation. They are top-to-bottom the most balanced, dependable team around, and they haven’t lost a game in quite a while. It’s a brutal stretch of matchups that might be near as challenging as the Final Four would be, depending on who emerges from the fray of course.

Our worst case scenario is that the lights get a little too bright for our young core, and Hawaii/Maryland play above their heads, sending us home far too early. It’s certainly possible. This is March after all, anything can happen. But I get the feeling that Coach Martin will have these guys ready and rearing.

My reasonable expectation is our first Sweet 16 appearance since 1997. At this point, we are a better team than Hawaii, Maryland, and South Dakota State (who I hope I don’t regret ignoring until this point…). I would feel confident rolling with us (and will in my bracket) against any of those three. I cannot say that we are a better team than Kansas, and thus a hard-fought loss to the Jayhawks would not be a disappointing result. In another universe, like the one Duke is living in, I would have much higher aspirations for this team than a mere Sweet 16 appearance. But alas, this is the hand we’ve been dealt.

Our best case scenario is that we beat Kansas. It would be glorious, easily the biggest Cal sporting victory of my lifetime. It’s doable, but it would take a tremendous full-roster, 40 minute effort I don’t think we’ve seen yet from this club. The closest we’ve come is the 20-point blowout of Oregon. But beating a really, really good team on your home floor in February is one thing. Beating a great team (with the pedigree of Kansas to boot) on a neutral floor in the NCAA tournament is another thing entirely.

I’ve said this for the last few weeks, and I’ll say it again. If all of our guys decide to play well at the same time, we can run with anyone. If Jaylen Brown decides he’s the best player on the floor (and he might not be wrong), we can beat anyone. That includes Kansas, and anyone else we might meet along the way. Should our best case scenario play out… I won’t even bother putting an end date on it. The sky would be the limit.

So get excited my fellow Golden Bears. It’s March Madness, the most wonderful time of the year. They say it’s the most unpredictable year in history. They say anyone could win.

Why not Cal?

Cal Basketball Report: Be Still, My Heart

I can’t decide if it’s an understatement or an overstatement to say “Winning on the road is hard, and Cal did just enough to win at Washington”. On one hand, Cal played mostly terrific defense, completely dominated an important stretch of the game in the middle of the second half, and had to overcome some truly unconscionable officiating (more on that in a minute) to beat a pretty solid team on their home court. On the other hand, Cal very, very nearly coughed up a double-digit lead in the closing minutes, went ice cold from the free throw line at the worst possible time, and committed 16 turnovers (several of them totally unforced and totally unacceptable).

To unpack this emotional roller coaster of a game, let’s take a page from Mr. Clint Eastwood.

The Good

Jaylen Brown - 23 points, 7/13 shooting, 8/10 free throws.

I have been infatuated with Ivan Rabb since the opening game of the season. And don’t get me wrong, Ivan has been great despite working through some obvious growing pains. But Jaylen Brown has taken over. He has taken over the team. He took over this game. He’s a man amongst boys. And if you didn’t see his two-handed jam in the second half, look it up. His elevation doesn’t make physical sense.

Tyrone Wallace and Jordan Mathews - 36 points combined.

Wallace continued to make poor decisions with his ball handling duties, and Mathews did not have his usual impact shooting from the perimeter. But both get credit for effectively driving to the hoop in the first half when Washington was seemingly blocking every shot in the paint and the game threatened to get out of hand. Without their early contributions, Cal probably isn’t even in position to blow a late lead.

The Bad

Pac-12 Referees - 56 total fouls called, general ineptitude

Look, you guys know how I feel about officials. They are human, and they are part of the game. All refs suck, and they are not an excuse for winning or losing. But this season has been a travesty of officiating, and this game was the cherry on top of the crap sundae. I won’t bother listing all the unthinkable calls they came up with, especially in the closing minutes of the game. But for its combination of jaw-droppingly bad timing and mind-numbingly bad reffing, the foul they called on Jabari Bird with 4 seconds left (with Cal up just 2) was an all-timer. It wasn’t a foul, and it sent a player to line who was 6/6 to that point, with a chance to tie. I can’t exlpain it adequately with words, and just thinking about it gives me heartburn. Just watch it. The basketball Gods made sure Washington missed the free throws, though. Justice prevailed.

Free throws under pressure - 9/19 from the line in the last 4 minutes, 5/12 in the last 60 seconds

After shooting 17/22 in the first 36 minutes, to boot. Simply unacceptable.

Jabari Bird - 2 points, 1/5 shooting, 18 minutes played.

It’s just upsetting that the reigning Pac-12 player of the week had no impact on the game, other than showing up in the box score as the guy who fouled with his team up by two with 4 seconds left. Jabari has to be better.

The Ugly

Cal’s stat line -  24/61 (39.3%) from the field, 4/15 (26.7%) from 3, 26/41 (63.4%) from the free throw line, 6 assists, 3 steals, 7 blocks, 16 turnovers, 29 fouls committed.

It’s ugly all around. Let’s start with the shooting percentages. The first two come in significantly below Cal’s season averages (as well as Washington’s defensive averages). And for a team that shoots free throws poorly to begin with (we are now 306th in free throw percentage on the year), we were STILL slightly worse than our average in this contest.

For this quick exercise, let’s be generous and round those numbers up a little. Let’s look at teams that shot 40%/30%/65% OR WORSE in a single game, but still managed to win. Out of the roughly 4,500 games that have been played this season in Div I, that has happened 81 times. So in 1.8% of games this year, a team shot as badly as Cal shot last night, and won.

Definitely unusual, but not crazy.

Let’s add in the fact that Cal also turned the ball over 16 times and committed a whopping 29 personal fouls. So 40/30/65 shooting + 16 turnovers + 29 fouls. And win the game. Before last night, in the last six years of NCAA Division I College Basketball, how many other teams do you think have won a game with a stat line that bad?

One. In ALL of NCAA Division I Men’s collegiate basketball. Since 2010. In a sense (and I will fully acknowledge that I am bending the statistics to fit my narrative) this was one of the two worst performances by a winning basketball team in the last six seasons (which is roughly 32,700 games).

That, my friends, is crazy.

So you can kind of understand my discontent, right? We won (and gosh did we need a road win), but we still played like road Cal. It just so happens that home Washington, on this occasion, was worse. I was hoping that this would be a glowing recap, touting Cal for finally turning the corner and blossoming into a true contender. But we’re still not there.

Now we head into a complete landmine game, at putrid Washington State. A win does little to bolster our position, while a loss of any kind is a horrendous black mark on our resume. A road sweep is nothing to sneeze at, but after a “glass-half-empty, glass-half-full” type of win, it appears we will return to Haas next week with lingering questions still to be answered. Can we play to our potential? Can we play at that level consistently? Can we do it against quality opponents, or on the road, or when the lights get bright, or when the refs try to screw us?

We’ll find out when we play at Arizona in two weeks, when all of the above will likely apply.

Go Bears.

Cal Basketball Report: The Return of Blakestradamus

Yawn. Just another dominating home win over a quality conference opponent. Snooze. Just a total deconstruction of RPI’s number 1 ranked team. I woke up this morning, and Cal Men’s Basketball is still undefeated at home. And the sky is still blue.

Let me begin by saying that I believe Oregon is the best, most complete team in the Pac12. I think they are going to go on to win the regular season championship and lock in a 3-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They already own wins over Baylor, USC, Cal, Colorado, Arizona and Utah (all within the top 32 in RPI). Not to mention, they beat those last two teams on the road. NOBODY in college basketball is winning on the road this year. While I wasn’t buying their #1 RPI ranking, I was buying their #11 ranking in the AP Poll. I’m basically trying to say that this was no slouch that walked into Haas Pavilion on Thursday night.

And Cal absolutely ran them out of the gym.

To illustrate our sturdy Golden Bear’s riveting 83-63 victory, here is a collection of correspondence I had in the lead up to, and during, the contest. And for those of you that don’t realize that I have been given a gift from beyond the beyond, this will be a special treat for you.

Following Cal’s horrible road trip to the mountain schools two weeks ago, I texted a buddy of mine who graduated from the University of Oregon. I expressed my frustration over Cal’s night-and-day difference when playing at home and on the road (I’m sure I’ve iterated this before, but Cal is now 15-0 at home, and 1-8 everywhere else. The disparity in their home vs. road stats is, unsurprisingly, vast). Then this happened:

Cal opened the game with perhaps the most energy I’ve seen from ANY Cal athletic program EVER, as evidenced by their 18-6 lead at the first media timeout. They shot 55.7% for the game. And the defense held Oregon 15 points below their scoring average, including a suffocating first half performance, allowing just 24 points. Two weeks ago, people. Please hold your applause.

Leading up the game, I also made this (only half-joking) prediction:

And this one:

Cal led by 21 with a minute remaining in the half. We didn’t quite get to that 24 point margin, but we weren’t that far off. And with 5 minutes left in the blowout, Cal was shooting EXACTLY 8/14 from 3, before eventually finishing a red hot 9/16.

Now you may applaud.

Other shout outs during the game:

Late in the first half - Comforting a Ducks Fan (but not really)

After Jabari Bird sank what felt like his 117th 3-pointer of the game

After Jabari Bird’s emphatic up-and-under reverse dunk in the closing minutes

If you haven’t figured it out yet, Jabari Bird was the MVP. He poured in 24 points (tying a career high) on 9/14 shooting. Perhaps more impressive though, was his defense. I don’t have stats to back it up, I don’t get THAT crazy. But he was hounding the Oregon wings whenever they touched the ball. His positioning was perfect. His close outs were perfect. He contested shots and stayed in front of drivers in the lane. Jabari has really flashed at times this year, which always prompts announcers to remind us how highly touted he was out of high school (and by association, what a disappointment his college career has been). I’m hoping he just needed time, and the right situation. Maybe the influx of primary talent will allow him to shine in a complementary role.

Other players of note:

Tyrone Wallace returned from injury, totally unbeknownst to me, by the way. He looked rusty in the first half, which is totally reasonable after missing a month with a broken hand. But in the second half, he looked like his old self - Viciously driving and spinning through the lane, dropping in shots off the glass or moving the ball to an open shooter. He also wound up with 8 rebounds… Which is a lot for a point guard with a broken hand. In any case, a very promising return for him.

Sam Singer had 11 assists. His court vision is top notch. His ball handling was great in this game as well. All he lacks at this juncture is consistency.

Jaylen Brown continues his “high usage, low efficiency” offensive run. 16 points, but on 7/16 shooting. There is still room for improvement when it comes to Brown incorporating into the offense, but as Bill Walton astutely pointed out (in between Glockenspiel solos), Cal’s best offense is Jaylen attacking the rim. Keep doing what you’re doing kid.

Ivan Rabb continues his “low usage, high efficiency” offensive run. 13 points, just on 6/7 shooting. He needs more touches. Period.

I’m not going to get into my usual curmudgeonly preaching about how we should take our wins with a grain of salt. Or about how Cal’s utter failures on the road are only made more infuriating by their exceptional performances at home. Trust me, I do have those stats. I’ll share them at a later date. Let’s just revel in what was a fantastic and integral victory. Our team is getting healthy at the right, and we may be about to turn the corner we’ve been stuck at all year.

Cal Basketball Report: Road Woes Continue

I don’t really want to talk about the Colorado game. I think it was one of the three worst Cal basketball games I’ve ever seen. You only need to know two things:

1) Colorado opened the game by shooting 1/19 from the floor, scoring 3 points in the first 9½ minutes.

2) Colorado led 37-23 at halftime.

You did not read those wrong. I did not switch up the teams. There are no typos.

Instead, I want to talk about the bigger picture. That metaphorical forest I keep bringing up. We are halfway through conference play, and Cal has been mediocre in every measurable stat. At a certain point, we get too deep into a season to expect wholesale changes. So we pose the eternal Cal basketball question: What is wrong with this team? Let me count the ways.

This team cannot win on the road

One overtime win against a terrible Wyoming team notwithstanding, Cal cannot win road games. It’s difficult to nail down exactly what the problem is. In one game, it’s poor shooting (0/12 from 3 against Oregon). In another game, it’s foul trouble (sending Stanford to the line 38 times). And in yet another game, it’s turnovers (16 of them against Oregon State). They just completed a complete mess of a road swing, losing miserably to Utah and Colorado (two teams they handled EASILY at home just weeks ago).

I can’t shake the thought that it’s simply a mental issue for this young team; that they can’t / won’t / don’t know how to get prepared to play a full 40 minutes in someone else’s arena. I heard someone on ESPN say “Freshmen don’t travel” while explaining Cal’s woes. It’s an insultingly simple bit of analysis, but I’m starting to wonder if it isn’t dead on.

The coaching leaves something to be desired

In two short years, Cuonzo Martin has already proven that he is a recruiting wizard. He seems to have a great rapport with his players, and it certainly appears that his guys like playing for him. He just might not be a great in-game manager. I honestly don’t think he knows what to do with his offense right now. He didn’t successfully recruit a point guard, and now he can’t rely on the injured Ty Wallace to create out of nothing. So the offense bogs down for long stretches. I can tell it’s bad on offense because every possession feels SO DIFFICULT. We can still get the ball in the basket, but it never seems to come easy (while Utah and Colorado are dropping in layups over and over).

And on the other side of the coin, his defense goes through similar lapses. Often, they happen due to foul trouble (which is partially out of Martin’s control). But other times, it just seems like we are a little off switching offensive players, a little late rotating to help in the post, a little too far away from the sharp shooter who just drained his last shot and would like nothing more than an open look from deep. When Martin preaches a defense-first approach and basically eschews spending meaningful effort game planning for the offense, these lapses are unacceptable. The defense is the fail-safe for when the offense struggles. But when the defense fails too, we get 23-4 game-deciding runs from the opposition.

It’s unrealistic to expect a powerhouse offense or a lock down defense 100% of the time - especially with our current collection of players. But you can expect adjustments and new schemes that fit the abilities of our players, as opposed to the other way around. And I don’t think those things are happening.

Failures in the “extraneous” statistics

Depending on which metrics you look at, Cal’s offensive output has been anywhere between Acceptable and Above Average. They play at a slow tempo, and don’t score an eye-popping amount of points because of it. But they shoot pretty well from the floor and grab a significant amount of offensive rebounds. Similarly with the defensive metrics, Cal has been a borderline ELITE unit on defense, despite their ups and downs. Teams shoot just 38.8% against Cal (good for 17th in the nation) with good rebounding numbers to be found here as well. So how is it that a squad with a (statistically) pretty good offense and a (statistically) really good defense has 8 losses and sits towards the bottom of the standings with a 4-5 conference record?

Unfortunately, shooting percentages and rebounding aren’t the only statistics that matter. When it comes to some of the other, less sexy statistics - let’s call them “extraneous” - Cal doesn’t fare so well. The first main culprit is free throw shooting. 67.1%. No way to sugar coat it, that’s awful. That mark places them at 255th nationally, right in the company of teams like Cal Poly, Hawaii, Oregon State, and … UTRGV? The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley?? Welcome to Division I, Vaqueros. One of their 6 wins this year was against “Our Lady of the Lake”. This is a team that shoots free throws as well as we do. Just think about that.

The other major factor is turnovers. Not only do we produce turnovers at a below average rate (12.5 per game - 155th), we are one of the absolute worst teams at forcing turnovers as well. We force just 9.7 turnovers per game, 341st in Division I. In case you were wondering, Division I Men’s Basketball has 346 teams. By the basic laws of mathematics, our turnover margin is also one of the 20 worst in the country, at -2.8 per game.

When you add all the factors up, that eternal question loses some of it’s mystery. This is a team without a point guard, who turns the ball over way too much and can’t generate them at all on defense. A team that shoots free throws about as well as a team I have honestly never heard of before and didn’t believe was actually a Div I team until I checked three different sources. A team that relies heavily on unpredictable young players and a coach that doesn’t quite have a grasp on his offense’s identity. Now put that team in a hostile environment against the deepest conference the pacific has seen in years.

It kind of makes you wonder how we win games at all, huh?

Is it better to struggle with turnovers and free throws than it is to struggle with shooting and defense? Probably. At least you can fool yourself into thinking those things are flukey, or could be corrected.  But it’s also supremely frustrating. I still believe this team should be good, but it just never gets there. Look no further than that for insultingly stupid analysis. This team SHOULD be good.

But it’s not.

Cal Basketball Report: Thoughts of a Madman

Growing pains. Preaching caution. Forest. Trees.

Trying to remind myself of all the things I said in my previous column, when I basically predicted we would lose this game. This was the one step back, to go along with the two steps forward we witnessed over the weekend when the Arizona schools came to Berkeley. Cal was thoroughly outplayed by Utah in all phases of the game, dropping to 4-4 in Pac12 play and STILL searching for a road win.

Instead of providing my usual “calm and collected” post-game musings, I decided to keep a running diary during the game. We’re gonna see how it plays. If you’ve ever wanted to get a glimpse inside my head during a Cal sporting event, here’s your chance.

I’ll keep it clean, I promise.

PRE GAME

7:35 PM - 25 minutes to tip-off. I’m watching New Girl. Don’t judge me, it’s a great show. I’m excited for the game, but I’m not nervous.

7:59 PM - Flip to ESPNU. Oklahoma State and Baylor still have 3 minutes to play. Scheduling is fun.

8:02 PM - Tip-off has been moved to 8:10 now. Gee, you think 10 extra minutes will be enough when this game invariably goes to overtime?

8:05 PM - ESPNU cuts to our pre-game warm ups for a second. Some studio host points out that Utah has won four of the last five and doesn’t lose at home. Good pep talk guys. Still excited, now nervous.

8:08 PM - Trying to load the game on Watch ESPN, nowhere to be found.

8:10 PM - Game’s over! Switch! SWITCH!

FIRST HALF

19:31 (0-0) - I missed 29 seconds… Anything could have happened.

19:10 (0-0) - Roy Philpott and Adrian Branch with the commentary tonight. Strong start for Roy when he calls Kingsley “Oak-ER-oh” (instead of Oh-KOR-oh). You could tell he didn’t feel good about throwing that pronunciation out there so early in the game.

17:53 (2-5) - Back to back possessions for Utah get extended by weird bounces off of us. Turns into 5 points. Inauspicious start.

16:13 (7-7) - Adrian astutely points out that the Utah D shouldn’t jump out at Jaylen Brown’s shot fakes. Of course, hindsight is 20/20 - Jaylen just blew by someone on his way to a layup AND 1.

16:13 (8-7) - Lane violation on Utah. Lane violations should NEVER happen. That’s one free point for Cal.

15:11 (8-9) - Utah’s passing has been impeccably sharp so far. They are going to FEED Jakob Poeltl tonight.

14:25 (8-14) - I guess if you’re going to leave a shooter open, make it a 17% 3-point shooter. Doesn’t mean he won’t drain it…

12:57 (11-17) - We have to double Poeltl all the time. I want two guys on him when he goes to take a leak at halftime.

12:22 (11-19) - Really bad start. Not surprised.

11:41 (11-19) - Jaylen Brown is missing everything…

11:08 (11-19) - Everybody is missing everything…

11:01 (11-19) - You must be a mind-reader, Philpott. “Cal is 0/6 on it’s last 6 possessions”. Dandy.

10:58 (11-21) - Get Okoroh out of there. Literally stood still while Utah grabbed an offensive rebound, then hacked the guy. The extra possession becomes an easy Utah bucket. Down 10 already…

10:31 (11-24) - Dakarai Tucker drains a 3, and it’s a 17-2 run for Utah.  At least Tucker shoots over 17% from 3.

10:06 (14-24) - FINALLY, Jaylen hits a jumper.

8:48 (16-24) - Ivan Rabb holds onto the ball too long, but gets bailed out by a foul call. Ivan just looks uncomfortable tonight.

7:29 (18-26) - Really ugly shot from Ivan, just beyond the free throw line. Flat and short. I don’t think this is going to be an Ivan game.

6:52 (18-26) - It’s impossible to tell on TV whether or not it was a good call, but it just seems like we get called for offensive fouls off the ball WAY too often. Wondering if there’s a stat that tracks that? Or if I need to invent it?

5:02 (18-28) - Sloppy, sloppy, sloppy basketball

5:02 (18-28) - Camera cuts to the Cal bench. Tyrone Wallace appears to be berating Jabari Bird for driving into two defenders on a fast break, and getting stuffed. Tell him, Ty!

4:29 (18-30) - Ivan is getting manhandled down low when he catches the ball. Cleanly, too. He’s just not used to this level of physicality yet.

3:52 (18-30) - How can we be at the under four timeout already? We only have 18 points…

3:35 (18-30) - Singer picked up his dribble up top and had to wait about 8 seconds for someone to come out to take the hand off… This first half has been a mess in terms of offensive movement.

3:21 (21-30) - Stephen Domingo??? With a huge 3.

2:12 (23-32) - Poeltl creates a textbook AND 1 situation, except the ref calls it a foul on the floor. Which is truly baffling. He puts in one of the two free throws. What could have been 3 points for Utah becomes just 1.

1:56 (26-32) - RABB! A discombobulated, whirling, wrap around lay up. Suddenly down by just 6.

1:24 (29-34) - STEPHEN DOMINGO?!?!?! With a HUUUUUGE 3.

0:50 (32-35) - JABARI BIRD! Another 3! Catching fire everywhere!

0:20 (32-35) - Fortunate roll for Cal there. Looked like Utah had corralled the offensive rebound, but Ivan poked it away from Poeltl and Tucker couldn’t hold on when the ball bounced his way. Chance for the last shot of the half, down just 3.

0:05 (34-35) - Jaylen with one of the more vicious spin moves I’ve seen to draw a foul… Didn’t see the foul on Poeltl honestly, but I’ll take it. Jaylen calmly sinks them both, and it’s a one point game at the break.

HALFTIME THOUGHTS

• Cal was thoroughly outplayed, but trails by just one. Feels like the Arizona game, which I suppose is a good sign. Hoping we keep the hot hand coming out of the break.
• It seems like Poeltl has been a dominating force inside, but he’s only 3/6 from the field. Kam Rooks has done a terrific job guarding him 1-on-1.
• Rabb has not looked good, but I want him to keep shooting.
• No one on our team has four fouls yet, so that’s a nice change.
• Is anyone else weirded out by these commercials where DeAndre Jordan is running around in a dress and wig? He really doesn’t make a pretty girl.
• College halftime breaks are too long, it’s already past my bedtime…

SECOND HALF

19:47 (36-35) - Cal leads.

19:14 (36-35) - First defensive possession of the half is tremendous, forces a shot clock violation.

18:42 (38-35) - More great defense, Okoroh creates the turnover with active hands in the passing lane.

18:19 (40-35) - Cal leads BY FIVE. Game feels like it’s turning...

16:53 (40-40) - Jaylen misses a wide open 3 (we have already established that’s not his game), Utah’s Brandon Taylor responds with a made triple. Feels like we missed a chance to create some separation there.

15:54 (40-45) - Yup, it’s a 10-0 run for the Utes. Infuriating. Missing good looks again, and now turning the ball over carelessly.  Momentum completely gone.

14:41 (42-50) - That’s a bad call on Jaylen. That was a charge by Poeltl. You don’t know anything, Branch!

13:42 (42-50) - Sam Singer with a huge block to save a transition basket. Ball still ends up with Utah, but I appreciate the effort. Effort is about the only thing we’ve done well the last five minutes.

13:23 (42-52) - Now Poeltl is dominating. Too easy for him to score down low. Rabb missed a pretty simple rotation on that one.

12:52 (42-52) - “Another turnover for the Golden Bears”. Five in the last eight possessions. I counted.

12:25 (42-54) - 17-2 run by Utah. Gee, that sounds familiar. How many games in the history of the universe have seen two separate 17-2 runs by the same team? Like… Seven?

11:57 (42-54) - Disappointed in the defense in the second half. The offense isn’t doing itself any favors, but the defense is lazy and uncoordinated. The defense should be keeping us afloat during these rough patches.

11:57 (42-54) - Taking a break until the under 8 timeout. Need to cool off.

7:40 (54-61) - I’m back. We’re at the beginning of a Cal comeback run. Lead is down from 14 to 7. Rabb just put a tasty move on Poeltl to draw the AND 1, and the defense seems to be regaining its form. For those scoring at home, I think the Utah run got all the way up to 23-4.

7:23 (54-61) - Refs steal another AND 1 from Poeltl. Again they call it a foul on the floor. Totally perplexing. And Utah isn’t in the bonus yet, so no foul shots.

7:03 (57-61) - An ugly fade away falls for Jaylen, and the foul! Only down 4, we can do this!

6:38 (57-61) - Poeltl misses the front end of the 1-and-1. The game is turning! We’re only down 4 WITH the ball, we can DO THIS!

5:37 (57-64) - Aaaaaand it’s turning back. Cal misses two good looks. Then stupid Brandon Taylor, who isn’t even looking at the rim, gets the layup to fall. Plus the foul. Total momentum killer. Second time this half it feels like we let an opportunity get away.

4:54 (57-66) - Officially turned. Jaylen misses a front end, and Poeltl ends up with an easy layup on the other end. Suddenly we’re down 9 with under 5 to go. Despair setting in.

3:41 (57-66) - We’re jacking up too many 3s. And none of them have been by Mathews… In fact, where is Mathews? I think I can remember him making one play in this entire half. And that play was a lazy turnover.

3:18 (57-69) - Kyle Kuzma blows by Ivan. Bucket, foul, game.

2:45 (57-70) - “Cal hasn’t scored in 4 minutes”. You say that like it’s a surprise, Philpott.

2:21 (58-70) - Adrian Branch responds to that nugget by saying Cal looks like a Sweet 16 team… Just going to leave that one alone.

0:50 (62-70) - Ivan Rabb has recorded the quietest double-double in the history of college basketball. First insightful thing the announcers have pointed out all night.

0:49 (62-70) - Utah just had their inbounder pass the ball laterally to another player, who was also standing out of bounds, and then THAT guy inbounded the ball. You can’t do that! … Can you do that??

0:16 (64-73) - They did it again!! How have I never seen that before?? You learn something new everyday.

0:00 (64-73) - Utah wins by 9. Sigh. This team can’t quite get it together on the road. Played very poorly for most of the first half… and most of the second half. Never deserved to be ahead by 5 to begin with, then totally collapsed. I did say to proceed with caution - growing pains and all that. There are worse losses than @Utah.

We miss Ty.

Chin up, fellow Bears. We’ll get ‘em next time.