I wanted two things this holiday season: I wanted a Cal Football bowl game. Check. And I wanted a Red Ryder BB Gun. No, just kidding. I wanted said bowl game to take place on the weekend, or in the evening, or on one of the numerous days I have off from work. So naturally, we end up in a bowl that kicks off at 11:00am on a normal workday Tuesday. I honestly feel like we got jobbed a little bit, but whatever. No use crying over spilt milk right? We can only play the opponent they put in front of us.
Like the other service academy schools, Air Force’s offense is heavily centered on the run game. With highly strict physical requirements for student athletes, Air Force is generally unable to recruit the kind of massive offensive and defensive line talent other schools covet. This means they will almost always find themselves at a disadvantage in the trenches. Their option offense (commonly referred to as “The Veer”) is designed to minimize that disadvantage, which is both totally obvious and totally brilliant.
This next bit might not seem obvious or brilliant, but just stick with me. The Air Force Veer offense often starts by leaving two defenders completely unblocked. These defenders are called “keys.” The quarterback is responsible for reading both “keys” and reacting appropriately. From what I can tell, the Veer almost always has two backs in the backfield, and an option to send one of those backs straight up the middle. If the first unblocked key is not in position to stop this running back, the QB will give it to him in the hopes he can gain a chunk of yardage through the traffic in the trenches. But if the first unblocked key moves to stop this running back, the quarterback keeps the ball himself and rolls to the outside, while the other back rolls with him. From there, you have the QB and the second RB against one defender (if the offensive line has blocked the play correctly). Think of it like a 2-on-1 fast break in basketball. The QB can keep the ball and run himself or pitch to his RB, depending on which one the defender attacks (and by all means he should attack SOMEONE, there is nothing worse in this situation than indecision).
I know this is a lot to try to explain without video evidence, so take a look at a couple different plays from the Mountain West Championship game that matched Air Force against San Diego State:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUkTg9QkYco
Start at 22:15. The first key on this play is SDSU #99, he jumps inside to fill the hole where Air Force’s first RB is headed. The QB sees this, and pulls the ball to keep it himself. He starts to roll to his right, but the second key (#27) immediately breaks down towards the QB. The pitch goes to RB2 who races in for the 8-yard score.
Next is 38:30. SDSU #40 actually does a pretty good job of trying to contain both the QB and RB1, but he ends up just a half step too close to the RB1 option. The qb wisely pulls the ball and scampers around the first key. #42 decides he’s cutting off the RB2 option (look how far outside he ends up!), so the QB simply heads up-field and gains solid yardage.
Jump to 48:05. Good old #99 is back again here, and he gets through the line quickly. Unfortunately, he ends up too far away from RB1’s running lane. The rest of the offensive line has all blocked down towards the bottom of your screen, so the QB hands off to RB1 who hits the line with a head of steam and breaks through for a huge gain.
Don’t get too intimidated here, these were some of the “best case scenario” examples I could find. But I also came across some not so good ones.
At 39:11, SDSU brings the heat and 3 defenders are in the QB’s face before he can even make his reads. RB1 would have been stuffed on the play, and the QB doesn’t even have a chance to get outside with RB2. Pressure and poor blocking blew up this play before it ever started.
Lastly, at 46:47, we see both a great defensive play and a poor read by the QB. #40 for SDSU gets into the backfield and appears to seal the edge (where the QB would attempt to roll). But if you watch closely, he is already hedging towards RB1 before the QB even hands him the ball. Thinking that his roll out lane is cut off, the QB hands off up the middle, but he has guessed wrong. #40 has already jumped into THAT lane and stuffs the play for no gain. Not only can we tell that the incorrect read was made because the play was stuffed up the middle, but also because there is SO MUCH ROOM on the nearside of the formation. QB/RB2 would have had tons of space for a big gain if the QB had kept the ball on his initial read.
If it hasn’t been made abundantly clear at this point, Air Force is going to run the ball. They’ll run on first down, they’ll run on third down. They don’t really care about convention. But that doesn’t mean they won’t pass at all. Every once in awhile, they’ll pop off a play action pass. And when they do, it usually doesn’t go well for the defense. According to Football Outsiders’ S&P+ ratings (super convoluted ratings system, don’t sweat the details), Air Force has the single most explosive passing offense in FBS. Of course it’s a small sample size, their starting quarterback only attempted 134 passes all season (For reference, Jared Goff attempted 492). With Cal’s suspect secondary though, the deep threat cannot be ignored, even if it only comes up a few times throughout the game.
There isn’t a perfect solution to stopping Air Force’s Veer. The obvious big picture goal is to force Air Force into 3rd-and-long situations. Despite their potential explosiveness through the air, their pass game simply isn’t consistent enough to drive down the field in chunks. But getting them into obvious passing situations is easier said than done. How do you stop the run, even when you know the run is coming? It seems to me like the best path here is NOT to stack the box and attempt to snuff out the triple option before it gets started (like SDSU did in the “no chance” example). When it works, it’s great. But if you guess wrong or miss a tackle, you could be looking at a monster gain for the offense. It seems like it may be more prudent to try and limit the offense to short gains. Plug the middle and push everything towards the boundaries. Make them go east and west before they can head north and south. Keep the options in front of you. Stick to your assignment. Make them beat us 3 yards at a time if they can. But don’t let them break the big play. Our defense has been playing this way against the pass all year. Why change now?
The best thing that can be said for Cal is that they have had over a month to prepare for this very specific offensive scheme. Cal can realistically simulate what the triple option may look like, and run through the ways to defend it. On the other hand, Air Force can prepare all they want for Cal’s offense, but I’ll bet they don’t have a way to realistically simulate playing against Jared Goff.
And really, there isn’t all that much to discuss in terms of Air Force’s defense. Their run defense is solid and will limit big plays, but you can get 3-4 yards a pop if you need it, just because your offensive line is probably noticeably larger than their defensive front. Their pass defense is definitely susceptible, Goff should be able to get the looks he wants. While execution is never a given with Cal, I’m not too worried about seeing our offense shut down. If Cal loses to Air Force, I doubt it will be because we couldn’t score.
The danger is evident. Think about the Texas game. Think about Texas’ QB galloping through our defense like a majestic wildebeest. Our run defense has not exactly been stellar throughout the season, and that’s without them having to worry about all the different looks Air Force will throw at them. I won’t be surprised if Air Force runs all over us in the early part of the game. It’s going to take our guys some time to settle in against a scheme they’ve probably never actually played against before. But if we can respond on offense, and make some defensive adjustments throughout the game, I believe our edge in pure athleticism will be enough to get us over the hump.
Cal pulls away late on the arm of Jared Goff to win their first bowl game since 2008.
