They are trying to kill me.
I figure between Cal Football the last few years and Cal Basketball the last few months, they’ve reduced my life expectancy by what? 30%? I knew even when we got out to a semi-comfortable lead that the game was going to come down to the last few possessions. I knew they were going to make me endure that “heart in your throat” feeling for a few agonizing minutes. I knew I would find myself with my hands on my head, mouth agape, after some play or another (this happened TWICE actually).
7:14 PM - "Still a lot of time left. We haven't closed games well."
I knew, I knew, I knew that they were going to try and kill me. I just didn’t know that they never intended to lose.
What looked like a Virginia-style late game meltdown heading for overtime, turned into a made free throw, an outstanding defensive possession, a runner off the rim, and a euphoric victory for our sturdy golden bear. This 74-73 win over THE premier Pac12 program of the era wasn’t perfect, far from it actually. Both teams had their goods and their bads. Both were missing key players to injury. Both looked like they could run away and win the game by 20 at times. Both also looked totally lost at others.
I felt like it was supremely important for our young team to show that we could run with Arizona (probably the only team in the Pac12 I would admit is all-around better than us). Going against a polished, experienced team like that can have ill-effects on diaper dandies. Win or lose, we needed to prove to our opponents, our critics, and ourselves that we DO have the horses. That’s my narrative. We proved it. We won.
Here’s the thing that grinds my gears: the assertion from the Arizona fan base that their team played terribly and that it always takes a superhuman, out of their mind performance from their opponent for them to lose a game. This is their narrative. I’ve read first hand accounts from people who were at this game. I’ve seen it written on all their blogs and message boards. I suppose the folks preaching this nonsense haven’t bothered to look at the box score.
Arizona shot a higher percentage from the field than Cal (51% to 45%). Arizona shot a higher percentage from three point range than Cal (44% to 36%). The two teams shot an almost identical number of free throws (Cal 18, Arizona 17), and Arizona converted at a MUCH better rate (88% to 67%). Arizona outrebounded Cal 32-27. Arizona had more blocks than Cal (5 to 4), and Cal has been a blocking machine this season.
The only statistical category in which Cal held a significant advantage was turnovers (7 to 11), but that entire difference was created in a four minute stretch at the start of the second half when Arizona couldn’t hold on to the ball. Furthermore, it is inarguable that the biggest, most game-changing turnover went Arizona’s way, when Sam Singer did his best Santa Claus impersonation and gift-wrapped a tying layup with 40 seconds left.
I will allow that Arizona DID play poorly coming out of the break, right at the same time Cal started to heat up. Between a combination of tight Cal defense and mind-numbingly bad turnovers, Arizona went scoreless the first 4 minutes and 20 seconds of the second half. Yes, that’s pretty bad. But you cannot point to a period that makes up one-tenth of the game, and use it to describe the team’s overall performance. They had a rough stretch. Cal immediately followed it up with their own rough stretch, which helped Arizona quickly erase a 9-point deficit. Hell, Cal had TWO similar (albeit slightly shorter) scoreless stretches in the first half (3:00 and 3:16). This is college basketball, it happens to everyone.
As for this supposed “superhuman performance”, I’m going to assume they’re referring SOLELY to Jordan Mathews. They must be, because Jaylen Brown shot 4/16 from the field, Ivan Rabb had a pedestrian 10/4/1 statline, neither of our 7-footers were offensively relevant, and no one else on the team contributed more than 4 made buckets. Did Jordan Mathews play a great game? Absolutely, he did. Did he play an “out of his mind, world-beating, night of his life” game? Sorry, but no.
Jordan Mathews is a 45% three-point shooter. If he took 12 three’s on an average night, you would expect him to make 5.4 of them. He made 6 of 12 in this game. Shocking. He otherwise made 4 two-point buckets, which is not generally a large part of his game, but contributed only 3-4 extra points than one would reasonably expect. He also made 2 of 2 free throw attempts. He shoots over 80% from the line.
Furthermore, Mathews jacked up an early airball, then barely drew iron on another long-range shot. He ended multiple possessions with inefficient heaves, and got gun shy for most of the first half. He had just 5 points before he sank a big three heading into the break. I’m not trying to downplay Mathews’ night at all. I’m simply arguing that his overall production was not particularly extraordinary given the amount of clean looks he got and how shaky he was early on. I wouldn’t have been surprised if, on a good night, he made NINE of those threes he shot, he was open so often.
When you get down to it, Cal won because they stuck around when Arizona threatened to pull away early, they made a run when Arizona went cold, and they did juuuuuust enough to hang on at the end. There is no cosmic force working against you Arizona. Don’t hide behind these excuses. You played a hard-fought, competitive game on the road against a talented young team. And you lost. End of story.
This is the part where I’m supposed to say this win is going to be a major turning point in the season; that it’s going to be the spark that ignites a spirited run of wins down the stretch. While I very much hope that’s true, I am going to go against the powerful pull of optimism, and preach some caution here.
First and foremost, Tyrone Wallace is still out for at least a few weeks. Even though we are 2-0 without him, we still miss his presence. Ty is not a true point guard, but he’s the closest thing we’ve got. He’s also the most trusted veteran on our roster. Whether or not we think the offense can run smoothly without him (and I do), that experience is invaluable come crunch time.
Secondly, we still aren’t quite up to snuff offensively. Sam Singer has done a (mostly) admirable job filling in for Wallace, but you could see Cuonzo already starting to move toward “Just let Jaylen Brown handle the ball” territory. Which is fine… unless Jaylen shoots 4/16 from the field. Plus, against teams like Arizona, we are forced to play at least one of Rooks and Okoroh (commonly referred to as “The 7-footers”) at all times to defend opposing bigs. On offense though, they range from “Marginally Impactful” to “Completely Useless” on any given day. It’s just a necessary evil. We continue to improve as a team defensively, and that necessitates taking a little bit off the table offensively. So be it. The problem is that we still haven’t figured out how to use our talented pieces efficiently TOGETHER. Until we do, we are limited on this side of the ball.
Besides our personal struggles, the conference is just ridiculously competitive this year. We are almost halfway through conference play, and we can safely say at this point there are no elite teams (ignore Oregon’s bloated RPI). But there are several really good teams, and no less than 10 teams within shouting distance of the top of the standings right now. Only Arizona State and Washington State have written themselves out of the conversation. The popular preseason picks (Arizona, Cal, Utah) are an uninspiring 12-9 combined. While perennial afterthoughts (Washington, USC) have been amongst the most surprising stories of the unfolding season.
The good news is that Cal is now 13-0 at home, including wins over their two parenthetical neighbors in the previous paragraph. At this point, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they won their remaining five games at Haas Pavilion.
The bad news is that they are 1-6 everywhere else, with the only win coming in overtime against a mediocre Wyoming squad. Even if Cal finishes 18-0 at home, they WILL have to pick up a couple road wins at some point.
Could it be that their first conference road win awaits in a potential sweep-completer at Utah? Sure, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Now more than ever, I feel as though this season is a marathon, not a sprint. Expect this team to follow a “two steps forward, one step back” pattern through the regular season. It’s going to be frustrating my friends, but try to see the forest through the trees. Our most important players are 18 and 19 years old. They have only played 20 college games. There are still growing pains to come.
Of course, growing pains mean growth. And that’s the single most important thing for Cal basketball right now. Grow, and gel, and win as one. I don’t know if we’ll be fully formed by mid-March, all we can do is cross our fingers and enjoy the ride.
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